Long-term population development of towns and cities in Brandenburg up to 2040

Abstract

The temporal horizon currently applied in population prognoses for counties and selected towns and cities in the German federal state of Brandenburg is the year 2015. However, a considerable number of important planning issues call for significantly longer-term forecasts of demographic developments. Such issues include the decisions which need to be taken by housing providers in the context of urban redevelopment regarding the reduction of supplementation of the housing stock; other examples are investment decisions affecting social and technical infrastructure, and labour-market matters. Consequently, the Spatial Monitoring Section within Brandenburg's State Environmental Agency has undertaken population-development forecasts with a 2040 horizon for 25 towns and cities in Brandenburg with populations in excess of 20,000. These forecasts highlight in particular the specific problems facing cities in eastern Germany; what they reveal especially clearly is that the drastic shifts in age structure expected to become evident over the coming years will continue after 2015, and in some cases will become even more pronounced.