“The most likely future isn’t”: Land Use Scenarios for Central Germany Authors Jennifer Hauck Department Umweltpolitik, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung – UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Deutschland Jörg A. Priess Department Landschaftsökologie, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung – UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Deutschland DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13147-013-0248-5 Keywords: Storylines, Relevance, Credibility, Legitimacy, Participation, Land Use, Central Germany Abstract Scenarios are coherent, internally consistent and plausible descriptions of possible future states, for example of land use in a region or a different spatial unit, which take the influence of markets, policy, climate into account. The qualitative descriptions of scenarios are called storylines, for example written narratives but also maps, pictures or movies. Apart from scientific purposes scenarios and storylines respectively are increasingly used in political contexts and national as well as international scientific advisory boards. They provide insights into future opportunities and scopes of actions and show the consequences of alternative policies. The paper introduces the participatory development process of storylines of land use in Central Germany as well as the final storylines and shows their potential uses. One example for the scientific application of the storylines is their use as a basis for computer-based land use change simulation (modelling). A further use of the storylines is seen in the context of land use planning. The storylines provide insights into alternative land uses and their positive and negative impacts, which can aid spatial planning or the development of policy measures or management strategies. Downloads Download data is not yet available. References Alcamo, J. 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Earlier volumes have been re-published by oekom 2022 under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License CC BY 4.0. How to Cite 1.Hauck J, Priess JA. “The most likely future isn’t”: Land Use Scenarios for Central Germany. RuR [Internet]. 2013 Oct. 31 [cited 2024 Dec. 5];71(5):397–411. Available from: https://rur.oekom.de/index.php/rur/article/view/672 More Citation Formats ACM ACS APA ABNT Chicago Harvard IEEE MLA Turabian Vancouver Download Citation Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS) BibTeX Share
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