Regionalisierte Szenarien des Klimawandels

Daniela  Jacob

doi:10.1007/BF03185698

Authors

Daniela Jacob Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03185698

Keywords:

Climate change, Climate models, Temperature, Precipitation, Regionalisation

Abstract

Global climate change initiates changes in regions as well. These changes can be calculated using regional climate change scenarios. For Germany first results show an increase of the annual mean temperatures between 2.5 and 3.5°C depending on the assumed emission scenario. Winter temperatures can rise by about 4°C in the South or Southeast of Germany. It seems that the annual precipitation sums do not change, but the annual cycle of precipitation might get more extreme. The results indicate a decrease of summer precipitation up to 30% in some regions of Germany and an increase in the winter months of more than 30%.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L. (eds.) (2007): Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 996 pp.www.ipcc.ch

Frei, C.; Christensen, J.H.; Deque, M.; Jacob, D.; Jones, R.G.; Vidale, P.L. (2003): Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: Evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. J. Geophys. Res. 108 (D3), 4124, doi:10.1029/2002JD002287.

Jacob, D. (2001): A note to the simulation of the annual and interannual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin’. Meteorol Atmos Phys 77, S. 61–73.

Jacob, D.; Bärring, L.; Christensen, O.B.; Christensen, J.H.; Hagemann, S.; Hirschi, M.; Kjellström, E.; Lenderink, G.; Rockel, B.; Schär, C.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Somot, S.; van Ulden A. and van den Hurk, B. (2007): An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: Design of the experiments and model performance. Prudence Special Issue, Climatic Change, Vol. 81, Supplement 1, May 2007.

Jacob, D.; Göttel, H.; Kotlarski, S.; Lorenz, Ph; Sieck, K. (2008): Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschland — Phase 1: Erstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien für Deutschland. Abschlussbericht zum UFOPLAN-Vorhaben 204 41 13.

Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J.; Davis, G.; de Vries, B.; Fenhann, J.; Gaffin, S.; Gregory, K.; Grübler, A.; Jung, T.Y.; Kram, T.; La Rovere, E.L.; Michaelis, L.; Mori, S.; Morita, T.; Pepper, W.; Pitcher, H.; Price, L.; Raihi, K.; Roehrl, A.; Rogner, H-H.; Sankovski, A.; Schlesinger, M.; Shukla, P.; Smith, S.; Swart, R.; van Rooijen, S.; Victor, N. and Dadi, Z. (2000): IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York.

Alle Abbildungen: Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology